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Early elections or the formation of a coalition government.. Possible scenarios after the assassination of the Haitian president

The assassination of President Jovenel Moise plunged Haiti into a power vacuum and a panorama of extreme uncertainty, despite the Caribbean nation's long history of adversity and political turmoil.

After President Moise was killed last Wednesday at his home, Prime Minister Claude Joseph declared a state of emergency in the country, granting the army sweeping powers, the different scenarios starting from now on range from early elections to an unlikely coalition government, the European newspaper Repubblica said.

It all falls into deep institutional fragility, with a downward spiral of unbridled violence, and the ambassador to the United States, Edmund Puckett, admitted that "it remains unclear who will lead Haiti".

The newspaper pointed out that since January last year, the Haitian parliament has been partially dissolved pending the presidential and legislative elections that were called for next September 26, and that Moise was unable to run for re-election.

These elections were approved by the international community as a road map for resolving the countless Haitian crisis. After the assassination, the legislation calls for new elections to be called within 90 days to renew the House of Representatives and the presidency. Although the deadline will be later than the one already scheduled, doubts are growing about the possibility of holding the elections.

"It won't happen, there is no electoral registry or court capable of organizing elections," said Eduardo Gamara, an expert on international affairs at Florida International University. "There is a complete absence of authority and even an organized civil society." Institutional chaos is an example of coexistence at this time between two prime ministers. Claude Joseph, who has held the position on a temporary basis since April; and Ariel Henry, who was appointed by Moyes on Monday but has yet to formally take over the position.

The expert added Gamara, "The possibility of forming a Government of National Accord also seems remote. As there are no political parties as such in Haiti. Rather, there are two fronts, the center-right PHTK, to which Moise himself belongs and on the other hand, the current associated with the right of historical presidents such as Jean-Bertrand Aristide , was overthrown twice in cooperation with the US This current includes one of the main opponents, Jean Charles Moyes.

On the other hand, the opposition has been accused of being behind the street riots and even the criminal gangs that have plagued the country. A report by the Center for Analysis and Research in Human Rights (CARDH) says there is a "dominance of crime" in Haiti. In June alone, more than 150 people were killed - including 30 police officers - and 200 more were kidnapped in the metropolitan area of ​​Port-au-Prince. The organization indicated in a document published on Tuesday that "the country is besieged by armed gangs spreading terror, assassinations, kidnappings and rape, and Port-au-Prince is considered besieged in the south, north and east."

“They are gangs linked to drug trafficking, kidnapping, and even forces that are like businessmen working for them as paramilitary groups,” Gamara adds. The group of the most powerful families in Haiti were also part of Moise's enemies.

The wave of instability hitting the country also includes recent statements by Jimmy Barbecue Scherzer, a former police officer who leads one of the most powerful violent gangs in Port-au-Prince, thanks to the rise of kidnappings and drug trafficking through social media. The poor” against the government and elites of the country.

“The emergence of criminal gangs coincides with the exit of the United Nations from the country,” Gamara says of the mission’s departure in 2017, adding that “the most likely scenario is the return of a new international mission, given that the United States does not seem ready to do so.”